El Cerrito, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

835
FXUS65 KPSR 132046
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
146 PM MST Sun Apr 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft is still present over the region but has relaxed
enough to avoid triple digit temperatures for this afternoon by a
few degrees. This is due to a series of incoming weather systems
that started to lead to a slight cooling trend. However temperatures
will remain above normal through the middle of next week. This
afternoon Fire weather remains a concern in the higher terrains due
to increased wind speeds, and dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows a troughing feature bringing upper level moisture
into the region contributing to the SCT-BKN cirrus cloud coverage in
the eastern half of the region. The increase in cloud coverage is
expected to remain for most of today through tuesday morning and in
conjunction with lower 500mb heights the slight cooling trend will
extend to the middle part of next week, but still running 5-10
degrees above normal (upper 80s to low 90s).

Models are beginning to see slightly better agreement in the
troughing system off the coast of southern CA moving eastward by
late next week. From that system a short wave looks to break off
early and move towards the southwestern portions of the region by
Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring an increase in
moisture into these areas. Unfortunately, the bulk of this moisture
will remain in the mid levels over a very dry lower level, resulting
in poor chances of seeing any measurable rainfall, with virga to
light showers being the most possible outcome.

Once these (at most) light showers move to the north out of the
region, Tuesday night, clear skies are expected to return through
Thursday. Although there is growing agreement in the models,
uncertainty still remains for the later half of next week into next
weekend in the strength of the trough in the Eastern Pacific. A more
pronounced cooling trend will be felt near the end of the work week
into the weekend, but again with the uncertainty NBM interquartile
temperature spreads continue to have around a 10 degree difference.
A more progressive pattern would result in some cooler (near normal)
temperatures, while a more amplified pattern would result in much
cooler (below to considerably below normal) temperatures as well as
increasing precipitation chances as early as Friday and extending
through the weekend depending on how long this trough may linger
across the Desert Southwest. Current NBM POPs peak Friday night into
Saturday with chances between 25-35% across the higher terrain areas
north and east of Phoenix and between 10-20% across the lower
deserts. More monitoring will be needed throughout the week to see
how models evolve with this potential significant pattern change.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF
period. The overall wind pattern will continue to exhibit the
typical diurnal tendencies with overall wind speeds aob 12 kts.
There can be some occasional gusts between 15-20 kts this
afternoon. Considerable cloudiness above 15-20 kft will be common
through Monday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns under periods of thicker cirrus
decks will be common throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds
will generally be out of the west while at KBLH winds will
fluctuate out of the south to southwest. Overall speeds will
remain below aob 10 kts with extended periods of very light and
variable winds likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for today across the higher
terrain areas of eastern Maricopa and central to southern Gila
County due to critical fire weather conditions, where very low
minimum RH`s around 5% combine with winds gusting 25-35 mph. Winds
will relax going into Monday, with slight RH improvements (minimum`s
around 10%, with poor to fair overnight recoveries), but areas of
elevated fire weather conditions may continue through the middle
of this week as periods of enhanced breeziness also appear likely.
Seasonably warm conditions will persist through the middle of the
week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ133.

CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ryan
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Young